Mastercard reported that the Asia-Pacific region is experiencing resilient growth amid turmoil over tariffs and artificial intelligence.
Overall, the company’s 2026 annual economic outlook — released Tuesday (Dec. 9) by the Mastercard Economics Institute — also forecast a decline of global real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 3.1 percent next year down from an anticipated increase to 3.2 % in 2025, according to press release.
“Being at the center of global trade, Asia Pacific has clearly demonstrated strength even in the face of uncertainty about tariffs and a desire to move supply chains closer to home,” David Mann, chief economist, Asia Pacific for Mastercard said in the release.
The well-supported fundamentals for many Middle Eastern consumers reinforce a theme for next year. While trade realignments and technological changes continue to headline the global agenda, microeconomic conditions are strengthening across most of the Asia Pacific. For businesses, remaining aware of these deeper demand trends will be critical.”
The significant economic forces affecting the APAC region next year include, per the release:
- A shake-up in trade routes as a result of tariffs, with China spreading its exports to more countries after the US share of eCommerce sales had fallen from 28% in 2014 to just 24% by August this year.
- AI usage and “targeted fiscal support” will create “meaningful tailwinds,” with strong momentum in corporate and consumer AI use from Hong Kong, India, Japan, and South Korea.
- Travel, one of APAC’s most resilient economic drivers. For instance, Singapore’s outbound spend was $2.7 billion higher in the first half of this year compared with 2019, while Indonesia and the Philippines were the regional growth leaders, each reporting increases in outbound travel spending of 40% and 28% since last year.
According to the release, risks and opportunities are shaping the world’s outlook for 2026. On the one hand, fiscal stimulus and sustained technological advances – including the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) across many enterprises – are likely to become key drivers of growth. Still, the gains will be unevenly distributed across markets.
“Geopolitical tensions persist and the reordering of supply chains is creating new points of fragmentation throughout established global value chains, posing a risk to trade and production,” the release said. “The lopsided distribution of technological gains could pose challenges to policymaking and growth in some economies.”
AiVolution explored the APAC region earlier in a discussion with Raymond Cui, China country manager at Nuvei.
“APAC is a huge, fragmented market,” Cui said. ‘It incorporates mature markets, such as Japan and Korea, growth markets like mainland China, and up-and-coming markets like Indonesia and Thailand. This variation also presents a unique challenge for payment firms as they expand in the region.
